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A New Leadership
Year Last updated:
4 April 2016
China’s Evolving Mode of
Governance Are Chinese Becoming More Confident? China’s Going-Out-to-the-World Strategy The Role of the Military in China Sino-US Co-operation and Co-dependence Earlier links are at the top of each
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Baogang He, “Giving the People a Voice? Experiments with Consultative
Authoritarian Institutions in China,” Journal
of Contemporary China, Vol. 19, No. 66 (September 2010), pp.
675-692. Downloads are available at: thttp://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10670564.2010.485404. The author suggests that authoritarian rule
in China is now “permeated by a wide variety of consultative and deliberative
practices that stabilise and strengthen the authoritative rule” and uses case
studies to present both benefits and limitations. Yang
Yao, “A Chinese Way of Democratisation?” China:
An International Journal, Vol. 8, No. 2 (September 2010), pp.
330-345. Available
by subscription at: http://muse.jhu.edu/login?uri=/journals/china/v008/8.2.yao.pdf. The author seeks answers to two questions: (1)
why has open demand for democratisation not followed China’s economic
progress, and (2) is China indeed creating an enduring form of
authoritarianism that is superior to the more conventional social and
political transformations. Francis
Fukuyama, “The Patterns of History”, Journal
of Democracy, Vol. 23, No. 1 (January 2012), pp. 14-16. Available at: http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/toc/jod.23.1.html
or http://fukuyama.stanford.edu/files/Patterns%20of%20History.pdf. Fukuyama began the essay with the statement: “In order to
understand the nature of democracy in East Asia, we must understand the
nature of authoritarian government there. […]
We need to fill in this gap and develop an understanding of how the
specific characteristics of East Asian government arise out of the
historically determined development path that the region followed.” Cheng
Li, “The End of the CPC’s Resilient Authoritarianism? A Tripartite Assessment of Shifting Power
in China,” The China Quarterly,
Vol. 211, September 2012, pp. 595-623.
Available at: http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2012/09/shifting-power-china-lic. The author argues that the CPCs
“resilient authoritarianism” is a stagnant system, both conceptually and
empirically, because it “resists much-needed democratic changes in the
country.” Minxin
Pei, “Is CPC Rule Fragile or Resilient?” Journal
of Democracy, Vol. 23, No.1 (January 2012), pp. 27-41. Available at: http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/toc/jod.23.1.html. The author presented a theoretical framework for
evaluating the resilience of authoritarian rule and then applied it to the
Communist Party of China. An important
implication for Western observers is this: In China today “activists
challenge the CPC on issues that can connect them with ordinary people—labour
rights, forced evictions, land disputes, environmental protection, and public
health. The CPC’s single-minded focus
on GDP growth has led to a systemic degradation of the Chinese state’s
capacity for providing such essential public goods as health care, education,
and environmental protection.” Jessica
C. Teets, “Let Many Civil Societies Bloom: The Rise
of Consultative Authoritarianism in China,” The China Quarterly, Vol. 213 (March 2013), pp. 19-38. Available for purchase at: http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=8867851. The author suggests that the decentralisation of
pubic welfare and the linkage of promotion to the delivery of public goods
helped to support the principle of collaboration between local government and
civil society in China. This
development “challenges the conventional wisdom that an operationally
autonomous civil society cannot exist inside the authoritarian regimes and
that the presence of civil society is an indicator of democratisation.” Eric X Li,
“The Life of the Party: The Post-Democratic Future Begins in China,” Foreign Affairs, January-February
2013. Available at: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138476/eric-x-li/the-life-of-the-party?page=show. The author states that “in the next decade, China will continue to rise, not
fade. The country's leaders will consolidate the one party model and, in the
process, challenge the West's conventional wisdom about political development
and the inevitable march toward electoral democracy. In the capital of the Middle Kingdom, the
world might witness the birth of a post-democratic future.” Hu Yongqi
and Lan Lan, “Reforms
Move with Time,” The Washington Post,
28 March 2013. Available at: http://chinawatch.washingtonpost.com/2013/03/reforms-move-with-time.php. The authors report the following: “As China's new leadership prepares
to take charge, the nation has embraced the opportunity to deepen
administrative reform by transferring power from the government to market
forces and public opinion via a restructuring plan approved by the National
People's Congress on March 14.” Evan A Feigenbaum and Damien Ma, “The Rise of China’s
Reformers?” Foreign Affairs, 17
April 2013. Available at: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139295/evan-a-feigenbaum-and-damien-ma/the-rise-of-chinas-reformers. The authors attempt to answer the question does the
new team in Beijing have the vision and the political will to revive stalled
yet crucial economic reforms by
noting that “reform is possible when the right mix of conditions come
together at the right time” and they argue that “these conditions are again
present today”. Zhang Jun, “Can China
Continue to Grow Under a New Regime?” The
Sydney Morning Herald, 22 April 2013.
Available at: http://www.smh.com.au/business/can-china-continue-to-grow-under-new-regime-20130421-2i8ey.html. The other states that “institutional
flexibility has been the key to China's economic transition and rapid growth
over the past three decades, and it is important the Chinese government
remains neutral and avoids being captured by interest groups. Authorities must ensure the system remains
open to change in the long run. Successful implementation of another round of
far-reaching reform depends on it.” Andrew Jacobs, “Chinese Court
Ruling Deals a Blow to the Labor-Camp System,” The New York Times, 15 July 2013. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/16/world/asia/chinese-court-ruling-deals-a-blow-to-labor-camp-system.html?hp. The article reports a decision of a high court in Hunan Province in southern China,
which was an explicit acknowledgment that the mother of a rape victim had
been “wrongly sentenced to a labor camp last year
after she publicly demanded that some of the men convicted of kidnapping,
raping and prostituting her 11-year-old daughter be more Joseph Kahn, “Losing Face,
Leaping Forward,” The New York Times,
18 July 2013. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/21/books/review/wealth-and-power-by-orville-schell-and-john-delury.html?ref=books. This is a review of a book by Orville Schell and
John Delury entitled Wealth and Power: China’s Long March to the 21st Century (478
pages published by Random House). The
reviewer notes that “over a century and a half China has stumbled through
imperial rule, warlordism, republicanism and
Communism. Its leaders have reigned
through feudalism, fascism, totalitarianism and capitalism. But for Schell and Delury,
none of these conflicting systems or ideologies in the end defined China, or
even the leaders who imposed them.
Instead, the constant through China’s recent history is the persistent
search for something – anything – that would bring restoration [of the
humiliations China has suffered at the hands of foreigners].” Zhan Dexiong,
“Time To Break the Hegemony of Western Discourse,” People’s Daily, 5 August 2013.
Available at: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90777/8352833.html. The author questions the wisdom of adopting
Western values in place of traditional Chinese values. As he states: “three decades ago concepts
like ‘democracy’, ‘human rights’ and ‘freedom’ carried a halo of sanctity,
and the non-western world did indeed look up to them as it struggled with its
economic problems; a few people even began to regard them as precepts. But more than 30 years have passed, the
halo is fading, and people are increasingly driven to ask: How can the
situation in the western countries be so bad if western democracy is so
good?” Christopher Buckley, “China’s
New Leadership Takes Hard Line in Secret Memo,” The New York Times, 19 August 2013. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/20/world/asia/chinas-new-leadership-takes-hard-line-in-secret-memo.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0&hp. The information in the article is based upon a
memo, known as Document No. 9, warning party cadres that “power could escape
their grip unless the party eradicates seven subversive currents coursing
through Chinese society”. This is
interpreted as a definite move toward traditional ideology by the current
leadership in China even as they pursue more liberal economic reforms. See also, Editorial Board, “Look
Who’s Afraid of Democracy,” The New
York Times, 27 August 2013.
Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/28/opinion/look-whos-afraid-of-democracy.html?ref=opinion. Arthur R Kroeber, “Xi Jinping’s Ambitious Agenda for Economic Reform in China,”
Brookings Institution, 17 November 2013.
Available at: http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/11/17-xi-jinping-economic-agenda-kroeber. The author summarises his interpretation of the
newly announced agenda for economic reform in China and suggests that the
core principle of economic reform is the “decisive”
role of market forces in allocating resources within China, and this
contrasts with the previous CPC decisions to give the market a “basic” role
in resource allocation. Cao Yin and Zhu Zhe, “Top Court Seeks Judicial Transparency,” China Daily, 9 January 2014. Available at: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-01/09/content_17224779.htm. “The top court is to publish an annual work
report in English to give the world a better understanding of China’s
judicial system and to reduce misunderstandings.” No author cited, “Chinese Civil
Society: Beneath the Glacier,” The
Economist, 12 April 2014.
Available at: http://www.economist.com/news/china/21600747-spite-political-clampdown-flourishing-civil-society-taking-hold-beneath-glacier?fsrc=nlw|hig|4-10-2014|8283453|34237756|. “In spite of a political clampdown, a flourishing
civil society is taking hold” through non-government organisations. John
Garnaut, “China’s Power Politics,” The New York Times, 11 August
2014. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/12/opinion/chinas-power-politics.html?ref=opinion. In reference to President Xi Jinping’s war against corruption, Garnaut
states: “Mr. Xi and his close supporters,
who were born into the Communist aristocracy as children of former leaders,
have won the first round in their battle to save the revolution that their
parents fought for. But there is a
long journey ahead not least because, like their forebears, they have
invested far more effort defining enemies than objectives.” Minxin Pei,” Crony Communism in
China,” The New York Times, 17
October 2014. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/18/opinion/crony-communism-in-china.html. The author considers the anti-corruption
campaign, launched by Xi Jinping shortly after becoming the general secretary of the Communist
Party of China in late 2012, and concludes that “corruption has penetrated so
very deeply into the party-state that it has become the glue that holds it
together. And so Mr. Xi’s campaign,
which is meant to ensure the CPCs longevity, seems
to pose an existential threat to it in the short or medium term. Paul Gewirtz,
“What China Means by ‘Rule of Law,’” The
New York Times, 19 October 2014.
Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/20/opinion/what-china-means-by-rule-of-law.html. The author, who is director of the China Law Centre
at Yale Law School, notes that the Fourth Plenum of the Communist Party’s
18th Committee is the “first time in party
history that a meeting with the authority of a plenary session will focus on
the rule of law. And there are reasons
for a measure of optimism that the plenum will demonstrate more complex views
about the roles law can play and also take meaningful steps to advance new
legal reforms.” Orville Schell, “China Strikes
Back!” The New York Review of Books,
23 October 2014. Available at: http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/oct/23/china-strikes-back/?insrc=toc. The author suggests that the new attitude in
Beijing is an unstated warning: “If China
can’t get what it wants peacefully, we are now powerful enough to get it by
other means, and we don’t much mind who is offended. […] Chinese seem to be
saying without being too explicit (they have always been masters at
indirection) is that they will now be reckoned with on their own terms, not
ours. Like it or not, this is the world’s new reality. Edward Wong,
“China Turns Up the Rhetoric Against the West,” The New York Times, 11 November 2014. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/world/asia/china-turns-up-the-rhetoric-against-the-west.html. “The vilification of foreigners as enemies of
China has been a staple of propaganda by the Communist Party since before its
rise to power, and analysts say the leadership tends to ramp up such rhetoric
when it feels under pressure at home,” though the present situation is
different in that now China is on the rise globally. Andrew
Jacobs and Chris Buckley, “Move Over Mao: Beloved ‘Papa Xi’ Awes China,” The New York Times, 7 March 2015. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/08/world/move-over-mao-beloved-papa-xi-awes-china.html. “Not
since Mao dominated the nation with his masterly blend of populism, fervor and fear has a Chinese leader commanded as much
public awe as President Xi Jinping.” Peter Hartcher, “Is
the Chinese Dragon Losing Its Puff?” The
Sydney Morning Herald, 16 March 2015.
Available at: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/is-the-chinese-dragon-losing-its-puff-20150316-1m0bx9.html. The article draws on recent comments by Professor
David Shambaugh, a China specialist at George
Washington University in the US, and Geremie Barne, Professor of Chinese History at the Australian
National University. Additional
comment at: http://www.accci.com.au/CommentonChineseDragonLosingPuff.pdf. Arthur Waldron, “In China: ‘A Peaceful Democratic
Transition?’” Eurasia Review, 22
March 2015. Available at: http://www.eurasiareview.com/22032015-in-china-a-peaceful-democratic-transition-analysis/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+eurasiareview%2FVsnE+%28Eurasia+Review%29. The author comments on a recent article in the
Wall Street Journal by David Shambaugh, and the
reaction of Chinese to that article. See
additional comment on Shambaugh’s article in the
link immediately above. D S Rajan,
“China: Xi Jinping’s Anti-Corruption Drive to Net
More ‘Tigers’?” Eurasia Review, 25
March 2015. Available at: http://www.eurasiareview.com/25032015-china-xi-jinpings-anti-corruption-drive-to-net-more-tigers-analysis/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+eurasiareview%2FVsnE+%28Eurasia+Review%29. “The purges that have taken place
under Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign, at the
best, look selective; it is clear that the ‘tigers’ being targeted are mostly
the loyalists of the then party supremo Jiang Zemin.” Comment by Michael C H Jones at: http://www.accci.com.au/JonesCommentonAntiCorruptionDrive.pdf. Youwei, “The End of Reform in China:
Authoritarian Adaptation Hits a Wall,” Foreign
Affairs, May/June Issue, 2015.
Available at: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/143337/youwei/the-end-of-reform-in-china. The need for further reforms
still exists, but many in the
bureaucracy and the elite more generally would be happy with the perpetuation
of the status quo, because partial reform is the best friend of crony
capitalism.
[…]
For a country
with China’s size and history, democratisation will have to emerge from
within. But the fact that the world’s
most powerful countries tend to be liberal democracies creates a strong
ideological pull—and so the best way for the West to help China’s eventual
political evolution is to remain strong, liberal, democratic, and successful
itself. Wouter Baan and
Christopher Thomas, “How China Country Heads Are Coping,” McKinsey Quarterly, October 2015. Available at: http://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/Organization/How_China_country_heads_are_coping?cid=other-eml-alt-mkq-mck-oth-1510. “As multinational companies face
stronger headwinds, how are local leaders dealing with the situation, and
what would help them move faster?” Bhaskar Roy, “A Tale of China’s
Corruption and Its Political Use,” Eurasia
Review, 19 February 2016.
Available at: http://www.eurasiareview.com/19022016-a-tale-of-chinas-corruption-and-its-political-use-analysis/. Abhishek Pratap
Singh, “China’s First Anti-Terrorism Law,”
Eurasia Review, 30 March 2016.
Available at: http://www.eurasiareview.com/30032016-chinas-first-anti-terrorism-law-analysis/. |
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Thomas
Christensen, “The Advantages of an Assertive China: Responding to Beijing’s
Abrasive Diplomacy,” Foreign Affairs,
Vol. 90. No. 2 (March/April 2011), pp. 54-67.
Available at: http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2011/03/china-christensen. The author suggests that “China's
[recent] counterproductive policies toward its neighbours and the US are
better understood as reactive and conservative rather than assertive and
innovative. Beijing's new [and] more truculent posture is
rooted in an exaggerated sense of China's rise in global power and serious
domestic political insecurity.” Kathrin
Hille ,
“Confident China Risks Becoming Arrogant,” Financial Times, 24 May 2012.
Available at: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b1593538-a59f-11e1-a77b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2MhifFdV6. The author suggests that there is a growing “xenophobic
chorus which highlights how the Chinese are struggling to find their place in
the world”. Many Chinese are quick to tell
foreigners that they “envy their countries’ wealth, rule of law and clean
environment, [but] foreign criticism of China’s shortcomings in those areas
often provokes denial or anger.” Gungwu
Wang, “China’s Historical Place Reclaimed,” Australian Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 66, No. 4
(August 2012), pp. 486-492. Available
for purchase at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10357718.2012.692533. This is a review of a book by Henry
Kissinger (On China) and a book by
Martin Jacques (When China Rules the
World). The reviewer compares the
separate approaches taken by Kissinger and Jacques and comments briefly on
how Western readers, as well Chinese readers, might react to each book. Wang notes that throughout China’s history,
its rulers always had the will to retain power at all costs and that
determined what the rulers did a critical moments. In his last paragraph, he restates
Kissinger’s belief that the West should make allowances for the changes that
are almost certain to continue as China develops, and “should seek to manage
the China that is and may become, but not what some people think it should
be.” Andrew J Nathan and Andew Scobell, “How China Sees America:
The Sum of Beijing’s Fears,” Foreign
Affairs, September – October 2012.
Available for purchase at: http://www.columbia.edu/cu/alliance/EDF-2012-documents/Reading_Nathan_2.pdf. The lead-in to the article states: “The United States
worries about China's rise, but Washington rarely considers how the world
looks through Beijing's eyes. […] America should not shrink from setting out
its expectations of Asia's rising superpower-but it should do so calmly,
coolly, and professionally.” Minxin Pei, “A More Confident Chinese People Tests Communist
Party Rule,” South China Morning Post,
3 November 2012. Available at: http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1074691/more-confident-chinese-people-tests-communist-party-rule. Minxin Pei reported that the once iron-clad rule by the
Communist Party is “being tested by a more confident Chinese people, and the
leaders who are preparing to take power have reason to worry.” Jacqueline Newmyer Deal, “China’s
Nationalistic Heritage,” The National
Interest, 2 January 2013.
Available at: http://nationalinterest.org/article/chinas-nationalist-heritage-7885. The article focuses on the notion of “national
rejuvenation”, which is being taken as a codification of the end state of
what China wants, as seen by the incoming general secretary of the Communist
Party of China, Xi Jinping. Jane Perlez, “A Confident China” (Video), The New York Times, 5 March 2013. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/video/2013/03/05/world/asia/100000002101117/a-confident-china.html. This interview of Jane Perlez
on video contains a number of observations, the value of which stems from her
long experience as the chief diplomatic correspondent in China for the New York Times. Geoff Dyer, “China’s Glass Ceiling,” Foreign Policy, 28 March 2013. Available at: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/28/china_glass_ceiling_number_two. The author suggests that “even if it overtakes the United
States to have the biggest economy in the world, which many economists
believe could happen over the next decade, China will not dislodge Washington
from its central position in global affairs for decades to come”. He
justifies this view by suggesting that China’s recent tactical successes have
been sowing the seeds of a strategic defeat.
For example, “China [views] soft power as a problem that can be solved
by bureaucrats -- by throwing money at it, in the way that it has with
high-speed rail or wind power. But modernity is not something that can be
acquired off-the-shelf. Soft power is
generated by society rather than the Ministry of Culture.” Ian Johnson, “Will the Chinese
Be Supreme?” New York Review of Books,
4 April 2013. Available at: http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2013/apr/04/will-chinese-be-supreme/?page=1. The article is a review of three books on China: Arvind Subraminian, Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s
Economic Dominance, Edward N Luttwak, The Rise
of China vs. the Logic of Strategy; and Odd Arne Westad,
Restless Empire: China and the World
Since 1750. Despite a variety in
the contents of the three books, Johnson does well in extracting salient
features from each, especially in reference to the territorial disputes in
the South China Sea. G.E., “Chinese Learning: Young China Hands,” The Economist, 22 April 2013. Available at: http://www.economist.com/blogs/analects/2013/04/chinese-learning?fsrc=nlw|newe|4-22-2013|5582513|34237756|. The article begins with the comment that “when Stephen A. Schwarzman, chairman of Blackstone Group, a private-equity firm, announced in Beijing on Sunday the $300m Schwarzman Scholars programme to send students to China to study, it was a testament to China’s place in the world as a new centre of gravity.” Shucao Mo,
“Creating an Age of Critical Minds,” The
Sydney Morning Herald, 23 April 2013.
Available at: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/creating-an-age-of-critical-minds-20130422-2iabq.html. Shucao Mo states
that in “recognising the weaknesses in China's education system, idealistic
young teachers, parents, and writers are attempting to provide different learning
options for Chinese students. They are
seeking to introduce more diverse themes, and give students the skills of
moral reasoning they need in order to become responsible citizens in a global
age.” Robert Lawrence Kuhn, “Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream”, The New York Times, 4 June 2013. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/05/opinion/global/xi-jinpings-chinese-dream.html?pagewanted=1&ref=global-home. The article includes a coherent interpretation of the “Chinese Dream” as well as an attempt to reconcile Xi’s grand goals with his apparent nationalism. Kuhn asks the questions, “so is Xi a reformer? A nationalist? The answer is that he is both, because only by being a nationalist can he be a reformer. American policy makers must understand Xi’s nationalism so that when the reigning superpower meets the rising superpower, both can benefit.” Dominic Barton, Yougang Chen and Amy Jin, “Mapping China’s Middle Class”,
McKinsey Quarterly, June 2013. Available at: http://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/Consumer_And_Retail/Mapping_Chinas_middle_class?cid=china-eml-alt-mip-mck-oth-1306. The report adds detail to the generally known
fact of China’s rising middle class.
For example, “in 2002, 40 percent of China’s relatively small urban
middle class lived in the four Tier-one cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou,
and Shenzhen. By 2022, the share of
those megacities will probably fall to about 16 percent. They won’t be
shrinking, of course; rather, middle-class growth rates will be far greater
in the smaller cities of the north and west. Many are classified as
Tier-three cities, whose share of China’s upper-middle-class households
should reach more than 30 percent by 2022, up from 15 percent in 2002.” Yiping Huang, “China the Key in
Shaping the Asian Century,” East Asia Forum, 12 July 2013. Available at: http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/06/12/china-the-key-in-shaping-the-asian-century/. The author’s main point is that “[China] should force new international divisions of labour,
by rapidly losing labour-intensive industries and moving up the value
chain. Its demand for commodities
should slow as GDP growth decelerates and investment share of GDP edges
down. But consumption should expand
more dramatically, as a result of continued growth and rebalancing, making
China the most dynamic consumer market. Slower but better-quality Chinese
growth would support more sustainable expansion of the global economy in the
Asian century.” No author cited, “China’s
Reform to Face Global Challenges”, People’s
Daily Online, 8 January 2014.
Available at: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/8506302.html. The article mentions the prediction made by The Economist that the overall
contribution of the leading Western economies will be greater in 2014 than
that of China India, Russia, and Brazil.
However, this article stresses the longer-term nature of the power
shift and suggests that “reform of political and economic governance is the
key to the future competition for national power and one of the decisive
factors in the reconstitution of global power.” John Garnaut,
“Young People of Taiwan and Hong Kong Refusing to Accept the Unification of
‘Greater China,’” The Sydney Morning Herald, 11 October 2014. Available at: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/young-people-of-taiwan-and-hong-kong-refusing-to-accept-the-unification-of-greater-china-20141010-1147tq.html. “The young
protesters of Hong Kong and Taiwan are ostensibly fighting to defend the
institutions that have made their societies among the most prosperous,
pluralistic and civilised on earth. […] And the popularity and demographics
of their cause suggest that the defeat of their ideals is not as inevitable
as it might once have seemed.” |
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Rhys Jenkins, “China and Brazil: Economic
Impacts of a Growing Relationship,” Journal
of Current Chinese Affairs, Vol. 41, No. 1 (2012), pp. 21-47. Available
at: http://www.uea.ac.uk/international-development/People/staffresearch/jcca+article+2012. The article analyses the economic impacts of
China’s re-emergence on Brazil, looking at both the direct effects of China
on Brazil in terms of bilateral trade and investment flows and the indirect
effects through increased competition in export markets for manufactured
goods and higher world prices for primary commodities. Christopher Alessi and
Stephanie Hanson, “Expanding China-Africa Oil Ties”, Council on Foreign
Relations Backgrounder, 8 February 2012.
Available at: http://www.cfr.org/china/expanding-china-africa-oil-ties/p9557. The authors note
that China’s need to lock in supplies of natural resources is a major
motivation for expanding activities in Africa, but they also raise the
questions as to whether China will “become the latest in a series of colonial and neocolonial powers in Africa, destined like others to
leave its own legacy of bitterness and disappointment.” Randal C Archibold,
“China Buys Inroads in the Caribbean, Catching US Notice,” The New York Times, 7 April 2012. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/08/world/americas/us-alert-as-chinas-cash-buys-inroads-in-caribbean.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20120408. The article provides details of a Chinese-sourced
“flurry of loans from state banks, investments by companies and outright
gifts from the government in the form of new stadiums, roads, official buildings,
ports and resorts in a region where the United States has long been a prime
benefactor”. Xianbo Su,
“Rescaling the Chinese State and Regionalisation in the Great Mekong Subregion,” Review
of International Political Economy, Vol. 19, No. 3(June 2012), pp.
501-527. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2011.561129. The “going-out” strategy is defined as the
expansion of Chinese capital and labour to other nation-states. The author’s analysis finds that the
Chinese government “deploys
two spatial strategies – upward coordination with international organisations
and the national governments in the Greater Mekong Subregions,
and downward implementation throughout Yunnan Province – to establish an interscalar regulatory regime.” Yong
Wang, “Seeking a Balanced Approach on the Global Economic Rebalancing:
China’s Answers to International Policy Cooperation,” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 28, No. 3, pp.
569-586. Available for purchase at: http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/content/28/3/569.full.pdf+html.
The
author presents different views of “mainstream Chinese experts and scholars who
have influence in shaping the country’s foreign economic policy.” His purpose
is to acquaint Western counterparts of Chinese views so that dialogue can be
improved. Greatest attention is given
to the interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis. For example, many Chinese scholars consider
the International Monetary Fund to have been institutionally biased in
reference to macroeconomic policies of the developed countries and thereby
“squandered its chance to prevent the financial crisis.” Xinhua,
“China to Seek Closer Cooperation at Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM),” China Daily 1 November 2012. Available at: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-11/01/content_15862589.htm. The ninth Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in
2012 was given the theme, “Friends for Peace, Partners for Prosperity”. China is committed to working with ASEM as
an “important platform for countries in Asia and Europe to enhance
understanding, expand consensus and deepen cooperation.” Dr B
R Deepak, “From China’s ‘Peaceful Rise’ to ‘Peaceful Development’: The
Rhetoric and More – Analysis,” Eurasia
Review, 25 December 2012.
Available at: http://www.eurasiareview.com/25122012-from-chinas-peaceful-rise-to-peaceful-development-the-rhetoric-and-more-analysis/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+eurasiareview%2FVsnE+%28Eurasia+Review%29. The author explains the evolution of catchwords
for China’s foreign policy from Deng Xaoping’s
“hide your strength, bide your time”, to the “peaceful
rise of China (zhongguo de heping jueqi)” and subsequently to “China’s peaceful
development.” Christoph Seidler, “The Resource Race: China Dips Toes in Arctic
Waters,” Spiegel Online, 25 January
2013. Available at: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/growing-chinese-interest-in-the-arctic-worries-international-community-a-879654.html. The article states that “China is hungry for
natural resources, and the Arctic is home to a wealth of them. Growing alarm about its ambitions has led
Beijing to take a softer approach, stressing exploration and research over
exploitation.” Daniel Wanger and Giorgio Cafiero, “The Future of Afghan-Sino Relations,” Huffington Post, 14 February
2013. Available at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-wagner/future-of-afghan-sino_b_2689635.html. The author suggests that “China is actively seeking to
redefine its relations with Afghanistan, coinciding with its desire to fill
the power vacuum that will emerge as a result of the NATO troop withdrawal
next year.” Xinhua,
“China More Active in International Affairs,” People’s Daily, 10 March 2013.
Available at: http://english.people.com.cn/90883/8161335.html. The article reports on a statement made by a “top
diplomat” at the 12th National People’s Congress that China’s participation
in international affairs and the nation’s contribution to building an
international system will be a priority of the new leadership. A brief summary is also given of China’s
activity in international affairs in the recent past. Claus Hecking,
“Capital Study: Chinese Investment in Europe Hits Record High,” Spiegel Online, 16 April 2013. Available at: http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/study-finds-massive-investment-in-europe-by-chinese-state-companies-a-894570.html. “Europe has
become the world's largest recipient of foreign investment by Chinese
firms. While North America largely views them with suspicion, China's
state-owned corporations have been largely welcomed in a continent plagued by
recession and in desperate need of cash.” Edward Wong and Chris Buckley,
“China, Beckoned, Dips a Toe into Mideast Peacemaking,” The New York Times, 8 May 2013.
Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/09/world/asia/china-dips-a-toe-into-mideast-diplomacy.html?hpw. The article reported that although Mr Xi, China’s
leader, presented a four-point peace proposal to Mr Abbas
“it did not contain any breakthrough ideas, thus hinting that China had given
some thought to playing a more energetic, if very limited role as mediator in
one of the world’s most protracted conflicts.” Zhang Shengjun, “How Deep Is
Ukrainian Crisis’ Impact on China’s Economy,” People’s Daily, 14 March
2014. Available at: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/98649/8566781.html. The author quotes US Federal
Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker,
who believes the risks that are likely to emerge from Ukraine “are
controllable and their influence is limited.” He then outlines how these
risks could affect China. William
Darlymple, “Afghanistan: As China Forges New
Alliances, a New Great Game Has Begun,” The Guardian, 19 March
2014. Available at: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/18/afghanistan-china-new-great-game-united-states. The author suggests that a “common interest in
Central Asia over Uyghur and Taliban militancy is bringing together Beijing
and the United States.” Collaboration
between China and the US on this issue began in September 2012 and resulted
in joint training for diplomats, health workers and agricultural engineers,
“the first time China has ever co-operated with a third party in another
country.” China’s Political Setting:
China’s Going-Out-to-the-World Strategy But Is the Strategy Working? Chris
Alden and Christopher R. Hughes, “Harmony and Discord in China’s Africa
Strategy: Some Implications for Foreign Policy,” The China Quarterly, Vol. 199 (September 2009) pp 563 584. Available for purchase at: http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=6166248&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0305741009990105. The authors examine various policy solutions that
are being considered by Chinese authorities a in
managing the its engagement with African civil societies and political
opposition. It concludes the lack of a strong civil
society inside China inhibits the ability of its policy makers to draw on the
expertise of the kind of independent pressure groups and NGOs that are
available to traditional donor or investor states. Rachel
Will, “China’s Stadium Diplomacy,” World
Policy Journal, Vol. 29, No. 2 (Summer 2012). Available at: http://www.worldpolicy.org/journal/summer2012/chinas-stadium-diplomacy. The author notes that “China’s stadium diplomacy has been
evolving since it began giving aid to African countries in 1956.” The term is used to convey foreign aid and
subsidised loans for iconic projects such as sport stadiums. Rachel investigates the extent to which
this diplomacy represents a Trojan horse with concealed agendas. David Shambaugh, “Falling Out of Love with China,” The New York Times, 18 March
2013. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/19/opinion/falling-out-of-love-with-china.html. The author notes that “while pockets of positive
views regarding China can be found around the world, public opinion surveys
from the Pet Research Centre’s Global Attitudes Project and the BBC Reveal
that China’s image ranges between mixed and poor.” Possible reasons for this
relatively weak response are given and some possible remedies are considered. AFP,
“‘Uncivilised’ Chinese Tourists Harming Country’s Reputation: Official,” The Sydney Morning Herald, 20 May
2013. Available at: http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/uncivilised-chinese-tourists-harming-countrys-reputation-official-20130520-2jvls.html. The article reports on news items appearing in People’s Daily that were made by Wang
Yang, one of China's four vice premiers, who complained publically about
undesirable and “uncivilised behaviour” of some Chinese tourists. Fareed Zakaria, “China Is Not the
World’s Other Superpower”, The
Washington Post, 6 June 2013.
Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fareed-zakaria-china-is-not-a-superpower-yet/2013/06/05/cbeb88e0-cdfa-11e2-8845-d970ccb04497_story.html?hpid=z2. Zakaria quotes and
apparently agrees with David Shambaugh with the
following: “China is, in essence, a very
narrow-minded, self-interested, realist state, seeking only to maximize its
own national interests and power. It
cares little for global governance and enforcing global standards of
behaviour (except its much-vaunted doctrine of non-interference in the
internal affairs of countries)” from page 310 of China Goes Global: The Partial Power (Oxford University Press,
2013). Alexis
Okeowo, “China in Africa: The New Imperialists?” The New Yorker, 12 June 2013. Available at: http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2013/06/china-zambia-resources-imperialism.html. According to the author, “it happened in Zambia like it could happen elsewhere
in Africa. Chinese investors made
deals with the government to mine its natural resources, filling federal
coffers with billions of dollars. Chinese immigrants moved into cities and
rural towns. They started construction
companies; opened copper, coal, and gem mines; and built hotels and
restaurants, all providing new jobs.
They set up schools and hospitals.
But then instances of corruption, labour abuse, and criminal cover-ups
began to set the relationship between the Chinese and the Africans aflame.” Associated Press, “Typhoon Haiyan: China Gives Less Aid to Philippines than IKEA,” The Guardian, 15 November 2013. Available at: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/14/typhoon-haiyan-china-aid-philippines-ikea. The article notes that “the decline of
American influence in Asia, with China filling the vacuum, has been predicted
for years. […] Yet China lags far behind the US in soft power, the winning of
hearts and minds through culture, education and other non-traditional forms
of diplomacy, of which emergency assistance is a major component.” Mark
Wu, “A Free Pass for China,” The New
York Times, 2 April 2014.
Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/03/opinion/a-free-pass-for-china.html?ref=opinion. The author states an opinion that enforcement of
World Trade Organisation rules effectively gives a “free pass” to China since
enforcement carries no penalty for creating harm. This is of course temporary for each
judgment of illegal activity, since future compliance to that specific
judgment is expected, but in the absence of penalties it does nothing to
dissuade countries from applying the same strategy to other exported item. Andrew Small, “Chinese Foreign
Policy Comes of Age,” The New York
Times, 26 March 2015. Available
at: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/27/opinion/chinese-foreign-policy-comes-of-age.html?ref=opinion. “Beijing, long content to sit on
the sidelines of security issues beyond its borders, has finally come to see
inaction as an even greater risk. Its growing willingness to use its
political relationships, military assets and economic power to strategic ends
is evidence that it is behaving more and more like a normal great power.” Hugh White, “Asian Century Must
Begin with Great Power Accommodation,” East
Asia Forum, 29 June 2015.
Available at: http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2015/06/29/asian-century-must-begin-with-great-power-accommodation/. “China’s leaders need to
acknowledge that it cannot expect to be Asia’s uncontested leader in the
future. US leaders need to acknowledge that they can’t either. Only then can
the two largest powers, and the rest of us, start to think about what model
of leadership will work best in the Asian Century.” |
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Bernhard Zand, “Stronger Chinese Navy
Worries Neighbours and US,” Spiegel
Online, 14 September 2012.
Available at: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/strengthening-of-chinese-navy-sparks-worries-in-region-and-beyond-a-855622.html. The author notes specifically
that “China and the US seem to be on a collision course in the Pacific. Beijing is significantly bolstering its
navy, and Washington is shifting its military focus to the Asia-Pacific
Region. Many fear it could alter the
balance of power in a region rich in oil and crucial for global trade,” Kamlesh Kumar Agnihotri, “Chinese Aircraft Carrier: Capacity Building
and National Pride – Analysis,” Eurasia
Review, 25 September 2012.
Available at: http://www.eurasiareview.com/25092012-chinese-aircraft-carrier-capacity-building-and-national-pride-analysis/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+eurasiareview%2FVsnE+%28Eurasia+Review%29. See also Jane Perlez,
“China Launches Carrier, but Experts Doubt Its Worth,” The New York Times, 25 September 2012. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/world/asia/china-shows-off-an-aircraft-carrier-but-experts-are-skeptical.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20120926. The two articles reflect at least to some extent,
the difficulties most Westerners have in reconciling China’s professed
strategy of a “peaceful rise” (see the article by Dr B R Deepak in the
previous section) and its recent additions to military capability. Michael O’Hanlon and
James Steinberg, “Going Beyond ‘Air-Sea Battle’”, The Washington Post,
24 August 2012. Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/beyond-air-sea-battle-a-military-concept-that-challenges-policymakers/2012/08/23/8fd4f8fa-ed31-11e1-9ddc-340d5efb1e9c_story.html?wpisrc=nl_opinions. For a background commentary
see: http://www.accci.com.au/CommentonASB.pdf. It is possible, and perhaps even likely,
that in two or three years the relatively large number of commentaries on China’s
military build-up and the US pivot to Asia will be classified as an example
of Henny Penny and the “sky is falling”
syndrome. But whether it does or does
not, it represents an example of a clash of perspectives. Keith B Richburg, “China’s Other Transition: Military to Be Led
by New Generation,” The Washington Post,
24 October 2012. Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/chinas-other-transition-military-to-be-led-by-new-generation/2012/10/23/a8fd9504-19e5-11e2-ad4a-e5a958b60a1e_story.html?wpisrc=nl_headlines. This article should be read in conjunction
with James Mulvenon’s comments (below) on the new
Central Military Commission, which were formulated after the new appointments
were formally announced. Erich Follath and Wieland Wagner,
“China Seeks Role as Second Superpowe,” Spiegel Online, 2 November 2012. Available at: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/global-ambitions-china-seeks-role-in-world-as-second-superpower-a-864358.html. This article, in three parts, discusses
current issues in China including the question as to whether (and, if so,
how) the role of a military that has gained considerable influence. Also included are comments on Xi’s desire
to make China the World’s second superpower and how China is using Confucius
to “polish its image overseas,” James Mulvenon, “The New Central
Military Commission,” China Leadership
Monitor, 14 January 2013 (No. 40).
Available at: http://www.hoover.org/publications/china-leadership-monitor/article/137921. The article examines the reasons
for Xi Jinping’s earlier-than-expected promotion as
chairman of the Central Military Commission and profiles the new members,
exploring their backgrounds and possible clues to their preferences and
outlooks. As a conclusion, Mulvenon notes that “five of the offices chosen for the
CMC, like the majority on the new Politburo Standing Committee can only serve
one five-year term before reaching mandatory retirement age, suggesting that
some of the choices were short-term compromises”. Xinhua,
“China’s Development of Blue-Water Navy a Must: Expert,” People’s Daily, 16 April 2013.
Available at: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90786/8210140.html. According to the white paper on China’s military,
the People’s Liberation Army Navy needs to accelerate the modernisation of
its forces for comprehensive offshore operations in order to protect China’s
trade and maritime-based people. |
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Michael D Swaine, “The
18th Party Congress and Foreign Policy: The Dog that Did Not Bark?” China Leadership Monitor, 14 January
2013 (No. 4). Available at: http://www.hoover.org/publications/china-leadership-monitor/article/137901. Swaine’s essay
examines the “foreign policy aspects of both the congress work report and the
official membership roster of the new CPC Central Committee, Politburo and
the Politburo Standing Committee.” Barry Naughton,
“Signalling Change: New Leaders Begin the Search for Economic Reform,” China Leadership Monitor, 14 January
2013 (No. 40). Available at: http://www.hoover.org/publications/china-leadership-monitor/article/137931. “Xi Jinping
and Li Keqiang are now the two top leaders in
China. Both have moved quickly to break with the Hu-Wen
administration and signal their support for dramatic new economic reforms. The structure of the new Politburo Standing
Committee appears to support their aspirations. Both Xi and Li have committed to a process
that will lead to the creation of a reform program by late 2013.” William
Wan, “China’s Xi Jinping Charts a New PR Course,” The Washington Post, 13 March
2013. Available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/chinas-xi-jinping-charts-a-new-pr-course/2013/03/12/84ca53c2-8743-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_story.html?hpid=z5. The [public relations] approach reflects
a new reality confronting China’s leaders in an age of social media and
mobile phones in which they “no longer retain total control over the message.
To adapt, experts say, they are trying to shape the news, in addition to
often censoring it.” Banyan,
“The Old Regime and the Revolution,” The
Economist, 16 March 2013. Available
at: http://www.economist.com/news/china/21573546-why-some-think-china-approaching-political-tipping-point-old-regime-and-revolution
. The
article notes the current trend in Chinese intellectual circles for reading
Alexis de Tocqueville’s 1856 book on the French
Revolution, The Old Regime and the
Revolution. “The argument that
most resonates in China is that old regimes fall to revolutions not when they
resist change, but when they attempt reform yet dash the raised expectations
they have evoked. If de Tocqueville
was right, Mr Xi faces an impossible dilemma: to survive, the party needs to
reform; but reform itself may be the biggest danger.” Andrew Jacobs, “China’s Premier Offers Plan
Focused on Helping the People,” The New
York Times, 17 March 2013.
Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/18/world/asia/li-keqiang-chinas-premier-offers-plan-of-economic-and-social-reforms.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0. Andrew Jacobs reports that “Li Keqiang,
in his first comments as China’s prime minister, laid out a vision on Sunday
for a more equitable society in which environmental protection trumps
unbridled growth and government officials put the people’s welfare before
their own financial interests.” Associated Press, “China Wraps Up Session to
Install New Leadership,” The Washington
Post, 17 March 2013. Available at:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-wraps-up-session-to-install-new-leadership/2013/03/16/aa72cdcc-8ead-11e2-9f54-f3fdd70acad2_story.html?wpisrc=nl_headlines. The article reports that “China’s new leader Xi Jinping “pledged a cleaner, more efficient government as
the country’s ceremonial legislature wrapped up a pivotal session that
installed the latest generation of communist leaders in a once-a-decade
transfer of power.” Ian Johnson, “China Releases Plan to Incorporate
Farmers Into Cities,” The New York
Times, 17 March 2014. Available
at: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/china-releases-plan-to-integrate-farmers-in-cities.html?
action=click&contentCollection=Opinion®ion=Footer&module=Recommendation&src=recg&pgtype=Blogs. Chinese authorities announced a
sweeping plan to manage the flow of rural residents into cities, promising to
promote urbanization but also to solve some of the drastic side effects of
this great uprooting. |
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Stephen
Harner, “Japanese Scholar Says Scrap US-Japan
Alliance; Recognise US-China Co-Dependency,” Forbes, 6 May 2012.
Available at: http://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenharner/2012/06/05/japanese-scholar-says-scrap-u-s-japan-alliance-recognize-u-s-china-co-dependency/. The author strongly supports Professor Susumu Yabuki of Yokohama City University, whose main point in
book entitled Chimerica – the US-China Collusion and the Way
Forward for Japan is that the US cannot afford to and will not under any
conceivable circumstances confront China militarily, baring a direct attack
on American ‘core interests’”. Wang
Yusheng, “Can China and the US Build a New
Relationship,” China-US Focus, 23
January 2013. Available at: http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/can-china-and-the-u-s-build-a-new-relationship/. The author points out that “over the past several decades, China and the U.S.
have travelled a path from confrontation to cooperation. “If the US
leadership can adapt to the trend of the times, the current ‘uncomfortable interdependence‘ between the two countries will gradually
become more comfortable, and march toward a new type of relations between
major countries.” Yomiuri Shimbun,
“China to Join US-Led Maritime Drill in 2014,” Asia News Network, 23 March
2013. Available at: http://www.asianewsnet.net/China-to-join-US-led-maritime-drill-in-2014-44418.html. The news service reported that the first-ever invitation
seeks to build trust. The Chinese Navy
will participate in the US-organised RIMPAC (Rim of the Pacific)
multinational maritime exercise off Hawaii for the first time in 2014.” Membership of the group is included in the
article. Chen Weihua,
“Embed Idealism in Constructive Realism of Ties,” China Daily, 24 April 2015.
Available at: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2015-04/24/content_20525919.htm. The author comments on Kevin Rudd’s report for
the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Centre for
Science and International Affairs: “US-China 21: The Future of US-China
Relations Under Xi Jinping,” April 2015. The report is available online at: http://asiasociety.org/uschina21. Chris Buckley and Jane Perlez, “Xi Jinping of China
Arriving in US at Moment of Vulnerability,” The New York Times, 21 September 2015. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/22/world/asia/chinas-xi-jinping-arriving-in-us-at-a-moment-of-vulnerability.html. “In a speech [in China] last
week intended to preview Mr. Xi’s positions on major issues between China and
the United States, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, sounded a defiant tone.
‘I wish to reiterate that the Nansha Islands are China’s
territory,’ he said, using the Chinese name for the archipelago. ‘These are
China’s positions that will not change.’” |
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