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Last updated 14 October
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Federal Treasury |
John
Wanna, “Treasury and Economic Policy – Beyond the
Dismal Science”, Australian Journal of
Public Administration, Vol. 70, No. 4 (December 2011), pp. 347-364. Available to subscribers at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8500.2011.00747.x/abstract. After discussing the difficulties of evaluation
the capacity of Treasury to contribute to economic policy-making in
Australia, the author proceeds to undertake such an evaluation and presents a
generally favourable report. Treasury’s
ability to transcend big changes in orientation from a globally small and
well-ordered economy to one that is far more complex and open to the full
range of external disturbances is well recognised. Wanna suggests
that this was achieved as a result of Treasury seeking “to broaden its
conception of economic wellbeing and provide whole of government advice
rather than rely on narrow economic-ideological doctrine.” This seems to have worked during the
transition from what we were to what we are now, but what we will become is
yet unknown. We hope that Treasury
does more than keep up with this continuing transition and helps to inform
the pace if not also the direction of the transition. Gareth
Hutchens, “Treasury Admits Revenue Forecasts Out to Tune of $8b a Year”, The Sydney Morning Herald, 23 February
2013. Available at: http://www.smh.com.au/national/treasury-admits-revenue-forecasts-out-to-tune-of-8b-a-year-20130222-2ewxh.html. The article discusses the “Review of
Treasury Macroeconomic and Revenue Forecasting” that was completed in
December 2012 and released on 22 February 2013. A copy of the Review is available at:
http://www.treasury.gov.au/~/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2013/forecasting_review/downloads/PDF/forecasting-review.ashx. For more comments on this and similar
matters arising from Treasury: Ross
Gittins, “It Takes No Brains to Kick Treasury”, The Sydney Morning Herald, 20 May
2013. Available at: http://www.smh.com.au/business/it-takes-no-brains-to-kick-treasury-20130519-2jutv.html David Uren, “Budget Numbers Add
Up, Says Treasury, but the Forecast is Clouded”, 22 May 2013. Available at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/treasury/budget-numbers-add-up-says-treasury-but-the-forecast-is-clouded/story-fnhi8df6-1226647966988 Myriam Robin, “Economic Pulse: How Do
Treasury’s Forecasts Stack Up? Smart Company, 22 May 2013. Available at: http://www.smartcompany.com.au/economy/055661-economic-pulse-how-do-treasury-s-forecasts-stack-up.html Jessica Irvine, “Stop the Rot
on Treasury Forecasts”, Business
Spectator, 24 May 2013. Available
at: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/24/federal-budget/stop-rot-treasury-forecasts. Economic
Roundup Issue 2, 25 July 2014.
Articles include: “International Economic Cooperation – Is It at
Risk?” “Capacity Development in Economic Policy Agencies,” “Capital Gains
Tax: Historical Trends and Forecasting Framworks,”
“Deregulation in Australia,” and “Jim Cairns: The Dreamer.” Available at: http://www.treasury.gov.au/PublicationsAndMedia/Publications/2014/Economic-Roundup-Issue-2-2014. John
Fraser, Sectary to the Treasury, “Address to the ACCC/AER Regulatory
Conference 2015, Brisbane, 6-7 August 2015.
Available at: http://www.treasury.gov.au/PublicationsAndMedia/Speeches/2015/ACCC-AER-Regulatory-Conference-2015. Comment by Ross Gittins,
“Competition Is the Key to a Brave New Australia,” The Sydney Morning Herald, 15 August 2015. Available at: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/competition-is-the-key-to-a-brave-new-australia-20150814-giyzok.html. |
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The Minders and the Ministers |
Richard Mulgan,
“What Future for Free and Frank Advice”, Policy
Quarterly, Vol. 8 No. 4, November 2012.
Available at: http://igps.victoria.ac.nz/publications/files/920432ee6ad.pdf. The paper was presented at a round table
organised by the Institute of Public Administration New Zealand and the
Institute for Governance and Policy Studies.
The speaker was invited to give the lecture as part of the centennial
commemorations of the Public Services Act of 1912. Some attention was given to key
developments since the Act went into effect, but much more was given to
current needs, with comments such as: “[I]t is disturbing to read a recent proposal that the State Services
Commission might eventually merge with the Department of the Prime Minister
and Cabinet”. “Public servants should
not compromise their respect for truth and evidence in order to accommodate
the views of their political masters”. The two documents reported here by
Richard Mulgan represent a much needed call to
return to the basics in public administration. |
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New South Wales Treasury |
NSW Government
“Half-Yearly Review 2012-2013”, 20 December 2012. Available at: http://www.treasury.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/24297/2012-13_Half-Yearly_Budget_Review.pdf. This is in compliance with section 8 of the Public Finance and Audit Act 1983 to
revise projections for the current financial year, to revise forward
estimates of major economic aggregates and to present the latest economic
projections for the current financial year. |
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“2015-16 Budget and Forward Estimates – Charts,”
28 May 2015. Available at: http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Budget_Office/Chart_packs. “National Fiscal Trends,” Report No. 01/2015,
April 2015. Available at: http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Budget_Office/research_reports. Includes analyses of trends in national fiscal
position, revenue, expenses, net capital investments and net debt and
financing costs. “The Sensitivity of Budget Projections to Changes
in Economic Parameters: Estimates from 2014-15 to 2024-25,” PBO Report No.
02.2014, November 2014. Available at: http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Budget_Office. The report focuses on the sensitivity of budget
estimates to three trend-projections: labour productivity growth, labour
force participation rates and the terms of trade. Media report by Gareth Hutchens, “Tony Abbott Budget to Blow Out by Billions
More than Expected,” The Sydney Morning
Herald, 26 November 2014.
Available at: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-budget-to-blow-out-by-billions-more-than-expected-20141126-11un79.html. |
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Productivity Commission |
Australian
Government Productivity Commission Draft Report, “Childcare and Early
Childhood Learning,” Draft Report, July 2014.
Available at: http://pc.gov.au/projects/inquiry/childcare. The draft report was prepared for further public
consultation and comment. Final
submissions are due Friday 5 September 2014 and final report is expected to
be available by 31 October 2014. Australian Government Productivity Commission, “Infrastructure for an
Ageing Australia,” speech by Peter Harris, Chairman, to the Committee for
Economic Development of Australia, Brisbane 9 May 2014. Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/136426/infrastructure-for-ageing.pdf. Harris noted the lack of attention in Australia
to the slow growth in productivity and to specific infrastructural problems
associated with an ageing population.
He attributed this mainly to the satisfactory pace of wealth
generation during most of the 2000s, which came to an end with the global
financial crisis. He is nevertheless
concerned that the current push in infrastructure development will proceed
too rapidly and without adequate cost-benefit analysis. Australian Government Productivity Commission, “Productivity Update”,
April 2014. Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/135935/productivity-update-2014.pdf. The update indicates that labour
productivity for the total economy increased by 2.2 per cent during the
financial year ending in June 2013 but multifactor productivity (“the measure
that come closest to the underlying concept of productivity,”) for the market
sector declined by 0.8 per cent in the same period. Australian Government Productivity Commission, “Public Infrastructure,”
Draft Report, 13 March 2014. Available
at: http://www.pc.gov.au/projects/inquiry/infrastructure/draft. The public are invited to examine the draft
report and to make written submission and to participate in public
hearing. For brief comment see,
Katharine Murphy, “Caution Urged on Using Private Finance ‘Magic Pudding’ to
Build Infrastructure,” The Guardian,
13 March 2014. Available at: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/12/caution-urged-on-using-private-finance-magic-pudding-to-build-infrastructure. Australian Government Productivity Commission, “Australia’s Automotive
Manufacturing Industry”, Position Paper, January 2014. Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/projects/inquiry/automotive/position. Note this paper was foreshadowed in the
“Preliminary Findings” reported below and the Commission is inviting written
submissions in response to the position paper by Thursday 13 February 2014. For comment on the paper, see Mark
Hawthorne and James Massola, “Ongoing Financial
Support for Car Industry ‘Not Warranted’ Productivity Commission Report,” The Sydney Morning Herald, 21 January
2014. Available at: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ongoing-financial-support-for-car-industry-not-warranted-productivity-commission-report-20140131-31rq2.htm.
Preliminary Findings, “Australia's
Automotive Manufacturing Industry,” 20 December 2013. Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/projects/inquiry/automotive/preliminary. “The report examines the global context and trends
in automotive manufacturing, and the factors affecting the competitiveness of
the Australian automotive manufacturing industry.” A position paper is
expected to be released on 31 January 2014, which will consider potential
options for government assistance to the automotive industry. Public submissions are invited. Staff Working Paper,
“Productivity in Manufacturing: Measurement and Interpretation,” 6 December
2013. Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/research/staff-working/manufacturing. The working paper examined the declining growth
of multifactor productivity (productivity achieved by means of more efficient
use of both capital and labour) in Australian manufacturing and concluded
that “there is no overarching systemic reason for the large decline.” Contributing factors in the decline may
therefore be temporary or one-off influences.
Comment by Ross Gittens, “Go Figure –
the Ups and Downs of Productivity,” The
Sydney Morning Herald, 14 December 2013.
Available at: http://www.smh.com.au/business/go-figure--the-ups-and-downs-of-productivity-20131213-2zd08.html. Commission Research Paper, “An
Ageing Australia: Preparing for the Future”, 22 November 2013. Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/research/commission/ageing-australia. “The report
focuses on the effects of ageing on economic output (underpinned by changes
in population, participation and productivity) and the resulting implications
for government budgets were current policy settings to be maintained. In that
context, it will help inform the forthcoming Intergenerational Report (IGR).” Inquiry Report, “Public
Infrastructure,” 14 July 2014.
Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/projects/inquiry/infrastructure/report. Volume 1 contains the overview, recommendations
and findings as well as chapters 1 to 8 (infrastructure provision, funding
and financing. Volume 2 contains
chapters 9 to 16 and includes the scope for reducing the cost of public
infrastructure and the necessary steps to implement the recommended reforms. Annual Report 2013-2014. The report was tabled in Parliament on 22
October 2014 and forms part of the Commission’s annual report series. Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/annual-reports/2013-14. Chapter 1 of the report notes that “a central
feature of the Commission is the scope its processes provide for people to
participate in and scrutinise its work.” Further comments from the public are
invited. Workplace Relations Framework,
Issues Papers, 22 January 2015.
Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/workplace-relations/issues. Issues papers are intended to assist in preparing
a submission to the Commission.
Initial submissions are due by 13 March 2015. Draft report is to be released in June/July
2015. “Report on Government Services
2015”: Approach to Performance
Reporting, Vol. A – Includes an introduction to the “Report on Government
Services, 28 January 2015.
Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/research/recurring/report-on-government-services/2015/approach-to-performance-reporting. Child Care, Education and
Training, Vol. B – Includes performance reporting for early childhood
education and care, school education and vocational education and training. 6
February 2015. Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/research/recurring/report-on-government-services/2015/childcare-education-and-training. Justice Sector, Vol. C – Includes
performance reporting for police services, courts and corrective services, 30
January 2015. Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/research/recurring/report-on-government-services/2015/justice. Emergency Management, Vol. D – Includes
performance reporting for fire and ambulance services, 30 January 2015. Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/research/recurring/report-on-government-services/2015/emergency-management. Health Sector, Vol. E – Includes
performance reporting on primary and community health, public hospitals and
mental health management. 4 February
2015. Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/research/recurring/report-on-government-services/2015/health. Community Services, Vol. F – Includes
performance reporting for aged care services, services for people with
disability, child protection services, and youth justice services, 28 January
2015. Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/research/recurring/report-on-government-services/2015/community-services. Housing and Homelessness, Vol.
G – Includes
performance reporting for housing and homelessness, 28 January 2015. Available at: http://www.pc.gov.au/research/recurring/report-on-government-services/2015/housing-and-homelessness. |
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Public Sector Governance |
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Regional Forums |
Andrew
Wear, “Collaborative Approaches to Regional Governance – Lessons from
Victoria”, Australian Journal of Public
Administration, Vol. 71, No. 4 (December 2012), pp. 469-474. Available with subscription at: http://www.ipaa.org.au/australian-journal-of-public-administration/. The author examined Victoria's Regional Management Forums,
which were established in 2005 to facilitate collaboration between Victorian
Government departments and local government in each of Victoria's eight
administrative regions, and found that the “Forums have been able to adapt to
an evolving policy and governance context.
While not without their challenges, Regional Management Forums have
given rise to regional-scale thinking and collaborative relationships.” A commentary on this article, by Richard Murray, is available in the
same issue of the Journal. Lee Mizell, Dorothée
Allain-Dupré, “Creating Conditions for Effective
Public Investment: Sub-National
Capacities in a Multi-Level Governance Context,” OECD Working Papers on Regional Development, No. 4 (2013). Available at: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/5k49j2cjv5mq.pdf?expires=1370072405&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=E8D8D6E09DD05C06B264C563A5617CA7. The objectives of the authors are to “1) identify capacities that enable
sub-national governments to design and implement sound public investment
strategies for regional development, and 2) provide
practical guidance for assessing and strengthening these capacities in a
context of multi-level governance.” Rudiger
Ahrend, Marta Curto-Gra
and Camila Vammalle,
“Passing the Buck? Central and Sub-National Governments in Times of Fiscal
Stress”, OECD Working Papers on Regional Development, No. 5 (2013). Available at: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/5k49df1kr95l.pdf?expires=1370071519&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=762CE1608112C360F710C184974C59E0. The main focus of this paper is the extent
to which (and the conditions for which) sub-national debt levels tend to
become unsustainable. It further looks
at the question as to whether and how national governments hand the burden of fiscal adjustment down to
sub-national levels, mainly by looking at examples from the wave of fiscal
adjustments in the wake of the 2007-09 global financial crisis. |
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Reserve Bank |
Philip Lowe, “Australia and the World,” Speech to
the Commonwealth Bank Australasian Fixed Income Conference Dinner,” Sydney,
30 October 2012. Available at: http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2012/dec/pdf/bu-1212-12.pdf. The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of
Australia commented on the competing influences on Australia from Asia and
the then troubled advanced economies, especially in reference to the exchange
rate and interest rates. He concludes
that Australia is well placed to deal with the challenges. Philip Lowe, “Productivity and Infrastructure,”
Speech to the IARIW UNSW Conference on Productivity Measurement, Drivers and
Trends, Sydney, 26 November 2013.
Available at: http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2013/sp-dg-261113.html. Lowe’s speech focuses on recent
trends in productivity growth in Australia and the significant challenge
these trends pose. It also includes
comments on the role that investment in infrastructure can make to boosting
productivity growth and our standard of living. For comments on the
speech, see Greg Jerico, “Infrastructure is Built
with Rigorous Cost-Benefit Analysis, Not Politics,” The Guardian, 2 December
2013. Available at: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/02/infrastructure-is-built-with-rigorous-cost-benefit-analysis-not-politics. Dena Sadeghian, Graham White and Patrick D’Arcy,
“Macroeconomic Management in China”, The
Bulletin, June Quarter 2013.
Available at: http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/index.html. The
article provides a comprehensive analysis of recent monetary policy in China,
as well as a brief coverage of the property market. Philip Lowe, “The Journey of Financial Reform”,
Address to the Australian Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, 24 April 2013. Available at: http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2013/sp-dg-240413.html. This address by the Deputy Governor of the
Reserve Bank is focused mainly on the deepening financial relationship
between Australia and China, and includes a few comments near the end of the
address about China financial sector reforms. Glenn Stevens, “Financing the
Asian Century”, Remarks to the Asia-Pacific Financial Market Development
Symposium, Sydney, 10 April 2013.
Available at: http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2013/sp-gov-100413.html. The
Governor of the Reserve Bank commented on the likely financial needs of the
Asian region in the near future, making a number of observations about
safety, efficiency and integration in financial systems. He also noted that “Asia
will in all likelihood continue to have multiple currencies for a long time
yet. A decade ago it was becoming
fashionable for Asia to look at Europe and wonder whether that was a model
for an Asian currency area in due course.
But we can now see all too clearly how demanding it is to be in a
currency union, and how much supporting financial and political structure is
needed for it to work.” Philip Lowe, “Demographics, Productivity and
Innovation,” Speech to The Sydney Institute, 12 March 2014. Available at: http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2014/sp-dg-120314.html. The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank chose to
focus on longer-term issues associated with potential linkages between
demographic changes, productivity growth and society’s attitudes toward risk
and innovation. Demographics are
generally favourable to Australia, but this may result in an increase in
external dependency unless there is a “collective ability to innovate and to
adjust to the changing world.” Glenn Stevens, “Economic Update,” Speech to the
Econometric Society Australasian Meeting and the Australian Conference of
Economists,” Hobart, 3 July 2014.
Available at: http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2014/sp-gov-030714.html.
Governor Stevens intreprets recently
released economic data by stating: “the most recent set of GDP figures, while certainly
encouraging, probably overstate somewhat the true ongoing pace of growth in
the economy. The Bank's forecasts from
early May, which we have not materially changed, embody ongoing growth but,
in the near term, probably a little below trend. We will provide an update of
forecasts next month. See comment by
Michael Pascoe, “RBA’s Glass Half Full as Productivity Gets Going,” The Sydney Morning Herald, 7 July
2014. Available at: http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/rbas-glass-half-full-as-productivity-gets-going-20140707-zsytu.html. Glenn Stevens, “Challenges for Economic Policy,” Speech to
the Anika Foundation Lucheon,
Sydney, 22 July 2014. Available at: http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2014/sp-gov-220714.html. Governor Stevens focuses on the challenges that
were involved “in dealing with and then recovering from the financial crisis
that enveloped the major European countries and the Unites States (and, briefy, the whole world) in late 2008.” The view
expressed is that policies put into operation were effective “in averting a
potential catastrophe five years ago, but fostering a strong recovery has
been much more difficult.” More detail is available from Gareth Hutchens, “Reserve Bank Hopes for
G20 ‘Bounce,’” The Sydney Morning
Herald, 33 July 2014. Available
at: http://www.smh.com.au/business/reserve-bank-hopes-for-g20-bounce-20140722-3cdna.html. Philip Lowe,
“Investing in a Low Interest Rate World,” Speech at the Commonwealth Bank of
Australia’s 7the Annual Australasian Fixed Income Conference, Sydney 21
October 2014. Available at: http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2014/sp-dg-211014.html/. RBA’s deputy
governor discusses the problems, and makes suggestions for solutions,
concerning the “new world” of low interest rates and the associated problem
of translating greater risk-taking on the financial side of the economy into
greater risk-taking on the real side. Glenn Stevens, “The World Economy and Australia,” Address
to the American Australian Association luncheon, New York, USA. 21 April
2015. Available at: http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2015/sp-gov-2015-04-21.html. Governor Stevens noted in his address that
whether the global capital markets are being influenced by a “temporary
increase in risk aversion, a genuine dearth of investment opportunities,
evidence of monetary policy ‘pushing on a string’, a portent of secular
stagnation, or just unusually long lags in the effects of policy will
probably be debated for some time yet.” In the meantime, central bankers must
consider policy action that helps to maintain stability in the financial
markets by monitoring all potential vulnerabilities. Philip Lowe, “Managing Two Transitions,” Speech at the
Corporate Finance Forum, Sydney, 18 May 2015.
Available at: http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2015/sp-dg-2015-05-18.html.
The
first transition in the Australian economy follows a period of extraordinary
growth in investment in the resources sector combined with record high
commodity prices. The second “is what
seems to be a transition to a world in which the global interest rates are
lower, at least for an extended period, than we had previously become used
to.” Philip Lowe, “Fundamentals and Flexibility,” Speech at CFA
Institute Australia Investment Conference, Sydney, 13 October 2015. Available at: http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2015/sp-dg-2015-10-13.html. The deputy
governor’s central message focused on the economic fundamentals with the view
that they “are strong and provide us with the basis to be optimistic about
the future.” |
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