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With Special Reference to Australia-China Relations August
2001 CONTENTS: Characteristics
of World Cities
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Genesis of this Position Paper: |
During the past several years,
the Chamber received numerous queries from Chinese enterprises about
investment opportunities in Australia, and about the
procedures required for that investment.
Most of these originated from small and medium-sized enterprises
(SMEs) and the queries were put through chambers of commerce in China, or
other non-government organisations, with which ACCCI maintained contact over
a period of time. In most of these cases we passed
the queries along to other enterprises or organisations in Australia that
were a position to supply information and advice. In doing so, however, we found it difficult to “follow the
thread” and are unable to determine how many of these were successfully
completed. Perhaps of greater
importance, we are unable to determine why they did not succeed, if that was
the result. We therefore decided to
reconsider our procedure and undertook a survey of case study material, as
well as some theoretical literature, with a view to discovering how other
nations facilitate inward foreign direct investment. The outcome of this survey prompted this
Position Paper. |
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Main Points: |
We discovered the following: Strategies to encourage inward foreign
direct investment (FDI) are largely urban based in that the focus is
typically on a small number of major cities in the recipient nation. Dispersion to other cities, and to regional
centres, is normally considered after the investing enterprises are
established in one of these major cities. The overall plan to encourage of inward FDI
is part of a wider strategy for the major cities to become more globalised
and presumably to gain a higher ranking as a global city (see section 2 – Characteristics of World Cities). Despite an urban focus for the facilitation
of inward FDI, successful strategies require relatively close co-operation
and co-ordination between the central government and local governments,
including state or provincial governments (see section 3 – Role
of the Public Sector). Successful strategies also involve
substantial participation from non-government organisations (NGOs). Apparently potential investors observe the
way the private sector assists in the implementation of the strategy and are
wary of governmental dominance (see section 4 – Role of
the Private Sector). The last of these points seemed
to justify greater participation on the part of the Chamber. We also believe that an NGO identified as
having a specific interest in China is likely to be more effective in
assisting the implementation of a strategy with potential investors in China,
as compared to non-China-specific NGOs (see section 5 – Australia-China
Relations). |
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FDI: |
Throughout this position paper,
we use the term direct investment to convey the
following: Sufficient equity ownership in
Australian-registered companies to be able to exert a major influence on the
way those companies are managed. It does not include share purchases that are
motivated by the more passive desire to obtain income from dividends, or to
realise capital gains, with little or no direct input into the management of
the respective companies (generally referred to as portfolio investment). It does not include equity ownership of a
financial institution in a company other than another financial institution. Many merchant banks and
investment funds are acquiring sufficiently large portions of the shares of
specific companies to allow the banks or funds to appoint directors to those
specific companies. Although this is normally
classified as direct investment, in these cases the desire to have influence
within the boards of directors is to protect the interests of the bank’s
depositors or the fund’s shareholders.
Participation among merchant
banks and investment funds, in the manner described, frequently results in
important contributions to corporate governance, but the incentives to obtain
this type of direct investment are different from those associated with a
company that is not a financial institution.
The desire for more active managerial influence may of course be the
same for a financial institution to acquire a major part of the equity in
another financial institution. Foreign direct investment is of
course direct investment by a company that is not registered in
Australia. In official statistics,
this is generally referred to as “private direct foreign investment”, but
foreign direct investment (or FDI) has been much more widely used. |
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East Asian region: |
The East Asian region refers
to the nations normally included in the eastern portion of the Asian
continent, as well as Australia and New Zealand. This avoids confusion arising from specific reference to
continents or to ethnic groups. |
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Globalisation: |
Globalisation refers to a globally oriented trading system. A more specific definition is: The
dispersion of production and service activities across national boundaries
and the cross-border linkages among economic enterprises for the purpose of
making that dispersion efficient and effective. |
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Infrastructure: |
Infrastructure is defined as the substructure or underlying foundation of the
economic, social and political systems.
It originally referred to physical installations such as roads,
schools, courthouses, etc., but usage now includes some of the intangible
elements in the institutional arrangements that create and maintain the
physical installations. |
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Producer services: |
Producer services are supplied to other businesses, rather than directly to
consumers. In some cases, such as
water and electricity, both businesses and consumers are supplied with
essentially the same thing. The
principal difference is that producer services are inputs for an additional
economic activity, and the availability of the services may form an important
consideration as to where the activity is located. |
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SMEs: |
Small and medium-sized
enterprises (SMEs) are obviously not large enterprises, but it
is difficult to state precisely when an SME ceases to be an SME and becomes
“large”. In our context, a large
enterprise is generally able to remain competitive using its own resources or
the resources it can easily obtain externally. Most, if not all, companies
listed in Asiaweek’s Top 1,000 Companies would be considered “large”. Refer to Annex A for
a list of China’s companies in this list and Annex B
for Australian and New Zealand companies in the list. |
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Sunk costs: |
Sunk costs refer specifically to investment outlays that cannot be recovered
when the investment environment is changed as a result of unexpected
circumstances. This is of course part
of the investor’s risk and most enterprises make allowances for it either by
taking out insurance cover or in budgeting for contingencies. The main relevance of this to the
discussion that follows is that abrupt changes or reversals in government
policy can add substantially to these risks and to the associated level of
sunk costs. |
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Three “world cities”: |
New York, London and Tokyo are
the only cities that are generally classified as “world
cities”. They achieved this
classification mainly as a result of a large urbanised region with a dense
pattern of interaction that involves finance, communications, international
transport, virtually all aspects of the global corporate sector, the
publishing industry (in traditional and contemporary forms), fashion and mass
culture. Opinion differs in relation to
regional aspirants such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore and Sydney in the
East Asian region. Fukuoka, Osaka and
Taipei have also been mentioned. Historically, the three world
cities, and some of the aspirants, enjoyed a relatively broad industrial
base, within their surrounding region, and were major transport hubs. In the past several decades, however,
emphasis has shifted to a comprehensive supply of locally based producer
services. The traditional services
(such as finance, accounting and insurance) remain important, while communications,
research and education have acquired increased significance. Competitive pricing of these
services is a critical element in attracting new investment and it appears
that a full range of such services is needed in order to maintain the dynamic
quality that encourages competition.
Additionally, timing has become more important in the delivery of
inputs, so gaps in local supplies of services add to production costs through
delays. Not surprisingly, the importance
of a comprehensive supply of producer services is one of the major factors
explaining the continuing agglomeration into high-density urban areas and
therefore gives an advantage to larger cities. Consumer services, particularly
medical, entertainment and generalised retail services, are also important in
attracting (and retaining) personnel with the skills required to supply the
full range of producer services.
Comprehensiveness in the supply of these services is important in
achieving the desired price/quality relationships. |
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Second and third tier cities: |
The advantages of agglomeration
(which are basically economies of scale) suggest that second and third tier
cities have a competitive disadvantage in reaching the status of a world
city. This is generally confirmed
with modelling experiments. The simplest form of modelling consists of a number of
agglomeration forces and a number of dispersion forces. The former is made up of the factors that
tend to create an advantage through agglomeration. Dispersion forces consist mainly of the capacity of labour and
capital to move to new locations, but may also include de-concentration
influences arising from aversions to crowded conditions. The net effect of these is balanced on selected parameters
to show whether changes in the parameters will lead to a stable return to
equilibrium or whether it will result in instabilities. For example, if extremely high transport costs are
inserted into the model, then each city will produce according to its own
needs. Trade and specialisation will
occur only between the city and its immediate hinterland. This result tends to be very stable and
will not be affected by moderate changes in the other influences. When the transport costs are lowered below a critical
level, the agglomeration forces begin to interact sufficiently to create more
extended patterns of specialisation and trade. With near-zero transport costs, that specific factor has little
or no influence on the agglomeration process. A typical result from this type of model is characterised
by small initial differences determining which among several possible “hosts
for agglomeration” will become a centre for activity. When that occurs, there is a “locked in”
effect that prevents additional circumstances from removing it as a centre of
activity. |
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Optimum levels of concentration: |
A different type of model was presented recently by Vernon
Henderson (see Reference Sources). It is based upon the view that if urban
concentration is an issue, then it should affect economic growth rates in a
“robust and consistent” fashion. More precisely, in any economy there are initial gains in
economic growth rates from increasing urban concentration from low levels,
but these gains peak and further increases in concentration bring loses. This implies that a “best” degree of urban
concentration exists, so that increases beyond that point will produce
negative effects. The results of the study
indicated that gains from increased urban concentration are substantial up to
a per capita income of about US$5,000.
After that income level is reached, further concentration may be
associated with losses in growth by as much as 1.5 per cent per annum. |
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Importance of technology: |
Technological advances tend to modify the negative effects
of further concentration and increase the level of per capita income at which
the negative effects become dominant.
This is relevant to both the world cities and to the major aspiring
cities. The capacity to apply recent
technological advances will apparently determine the extent to which the
leading cities are able to retain their current positions, and it is also
likely to determine the speed at which an aspiring city rises to a higher
ranking. To summarise the relevant theoretical and empirical
literature relating to urban concentration, the benefits from agglomeration
appear to rise sharply as a relatively small city begins to expand. This is followed by a decline in the rate
at which the benefits of agglomeration are realised and the benefits are
likely to become negative unless efforts are made to minimise the adverse
effects of further concentration. |
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Relevance of globalisation: |
This process can be made clearer by relating it to
outsourcing activities that have become important elements in the
globalisation of production.
Outsourcing and offshore production are motivated by high and
(probably) increasing costs in the home cities of the outgoing enterprises. The first type of enterprise to shift production to a
lower-cost nation is one that has a standardised product and a standardised
production process. For these
enterprises there is little need for a comprehensive range of producer
services that existed in the home city but are probably missing at the
incompletely agglomerated destination city. The outsourcing activities nevertheless give rise to
agglomeration forces and this attracts other enterprises either on a citywide
basis or in the form of industry clusters.
City planners and municipal authorities typically seek to increase the
speed of agglomeration in order to realise the benefits associated with
faster rates of economic growth. As these destination cities develop and reach their own
optimum degree of concentration, they become exposed to the dispersion forces
that previously motivated the outsourcing from the original cities. The globalisation process is likely to
spread this urban growth cycle among a larger number of cities, and it is also
likely to contract the time span between the beginning of agglomeration and
the beginning ob de-concentration. |
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Relevance to FDI: |
FDI is obviously a fundamental
part of the globalisation process and is used as an indication of a city’s
success in achieving a balance between the agglomeration forces and the
dispersion forces. Perhaps of greater
importance, FDI contributes to the balance by giving access to new
technological advances that are of critical importance in avoiding the
negative effects of urban concentration. Mainly for this reason, it is
difficult to separate strategies for increased FDI from strategies for urban
development. |
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Importance of historical developments: |
Considerable attention has been given to the case study
analyses of the historical developments in the evolution of cities in the
East Asian region. The agglomeration forces described above reinforce the view that
historical developments are important elements in urban planning and
design. For example, the “locked in”
effect, which was mentioned above, is another way of stating that the form
and functions of a city that evolved over a relatively long period of time
cannot be easily undone or reversed. On a more practical level, however, the position of a
particular city along the agglomeration path is relevant to a number of
planning considerations.
Specifically, for a relatively low-income city, the available evidence
suggests that urban planners should allow for extensive and rapid
agglomeration. Technological refinements and innovative ways of achieving
the agglomeration will produce relatively little benefit at the start of the
process. The most important
objective, in the initial period, should be to achieve broadly based
agglomeration and to quickly reach the “locked in” stage. With this, however, the changes that are likely to occur
later should not be ignored.
Technological refinements and innovative ways of achieving further
agglomeration will yield substantial benefits when the initial agglomeration
forces begin to weaken. The role of the public sector is
principally in monitoring these changes and in initiating a procedure to
achieve continuing benefits, and this eventually means avoiding the adverse
effects of further concentration. |
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Identification of weaknesses: |
Public sector participation
should focus more on the identification of weaknesses (or gaps in the service
supplies) than in the identification of strengths. This is generally difficult if the public sector is politicised
since relatively few public officials are willing to highlight weaknesses,
and some are reluctant to recognise that weaknesses exist. This may account for the
apparent desire of investors to rely increasingly on private sector
participants. It may also be relevant
to the difficulties associated with co-operation and co-ordination among
various levels of government. |
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Bidding contests: |
Complications arise from the
competitive disadvantage of smaller cities, vis à vis larger ones, and the
realisation that investment incentives are useful in overcoming the
disadvantage. These incentives were
initially viewed as equalisation measures that compensated the investing
enterprise for its relocation costs, and for the risks associated with the
offshore activity. The demonstrated success of such
investment incentives by Singapore and other East Asian nations stimulated
the adoption of similar policies by other countries. This has occasionally resulted in bidding
contests for specific types of enterprises. Although the targeted
enterprises benefit substantially from this bidding activity, the higher cost
of acquiring the FDI at least partly erodes the benefits. It may also be counterproductive in the
longer term since it seems to have created a larger group of “footloose”
enterprises that shift location easily in response to better offers. |
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Investment assistance: |
Investment assistance from the
public sector may have short-term benefits in “filling the gaps”, but they
generally succeed only when further assistance becomes unnecessary. All investment subsidy schemes should be
associated with a program to achieve this objective. Inter-governmental co-operation (and
perhaps also intra-governmental co-operation) is almost always an important
element in that achievement. A variety of
investment-assistance schemes have been applied in the past, nearly all of
which required modification in response to changes in globalisation patterns
and the development of the nation’s industrial structure. For example, export processing zones that
feature bonded areas for the importation of duty free components ceased to be
an attraction when tariffs on the relevant items were lowered on a
multilateral basis. Similarly, the planning concept
of industrial parks is being extended to a “constellation plan” of
sub-centres. The original notion of
industrial parks focused on a concentration of processing factories in a
specific location for the purpose of minimising the time/distance factor in the
interactions among enterprises in those industries. The newer version involves sub-centres outside the central
business district that have specialised functions but also have a wider range
of services in each centre. For example, the Urban
Redevelopment Authority of Singapore is targeting Woodlands, near Changi
International Airport, to become a site for corporate headquarters with an
information technology park. Jurong
East, which has been manufacturing centre for some time, is to have a
business park with a variety of commercial establishments. Available literature does not
yet offer specific guidelines for land use patterns that are effective in
attracting foreign investment.
Apparently the legacies of the past have produced too many differences
to allow optimum patterns to be identified.
Nevertheless, several relevant aspects of urban planning and
development can be drawn from recent case studies: The public sector has an
important role in formulating and presenting development plans that include: infrastructure development that minimises
costs of production for the private sector; flexibility in development planning to allow
more continuous adjustment in response to a rapidly changing business and
commercial environment; widespread consultation with the private
sector to invite constructive comments; and sufficient notice of changes in plans and
policies to allow enterprise to minimise the level of sunk costs. We suggest that investment
incentives without these elements of development planning are not likely to
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The workforce will of course
welcome any employment-creating incentives.
There may be a preference for foreign-owned enterprises if a
substantial portion of the workforce perceives that the development of skills
through in-house training is more effectively delivered by those enterprises. This is a form of technological transfer
which adds substantially to the benefits of FDI for developing
countries. Those benefits decline as
the “technological gap” shrinks with the industrialisation process. Infrastructure development will
improve the competitive position of domestic enterprises and will also act as
an incentive for FDI. The benefits
are therefore more widely spread.
Perhaps of greater importance, infrastructure development is
associated with the self-sustaining elements of agglomeration and dispersion
outlined in Section 2. When the
process is successfully initiated, the balancing factors emerge with little
or no added incentives. A major role of the private
sector in this process is that of informing the public sector of specific
infrastructure improvements that are likely to reduce, in an efficient and
effective way, the cost of doing business in specific locations. The private sector can also contribute by
responding quickly to public sector proposals to change development plans or
policies. An optimum or ideal form of
public/private co-operation is not easily defined. Differences in political and social systems are likely to limit
the application of any such “optimum”.
Current thought nevertheless places increased emphasis on
institutional development in order to facilitate the co-operative
process. This involves evolutionary
changes in the sets of formal and informal rules that govern the actions of
individuals and organisations and the way they interact. As the World Bank noted in its World Development 1999/2000, “much remains to be
learned about the determinants of institutional change. Institutions change slowly but
continuously, either in response to shifts in outside circumstances or as a
result of group conflict and bargaining.” It appears that forces acting to
retard or restrict institutional changes will also retard or restrict the
achievement of the outcomes upon which the respective institutions are
focused. Both the public sector and
the private sector have a role in minimising these “restrictive forces”. To summarise: We suggested that incentives for foreign
direct investment are not likely to be successful unless they are linked to
urban development in the recipient nation, and urban development requires
that the respective cities become simultaneously more competitive and more
liveable. Achieving a balance between
these objectives is not easy, but it may be impossible if the objectives are
treated separately rather than as a joint objective. The balance requires public
sector and private sector co-operation, and that in turn requires a
satisfactory evolutionary change in institutions, as defined above.
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Change did of course occur in
the second half of the 19th century and during most of the 20th century, but
the changes were largely induced by outside influences. Change did not occur in a systematic way
and it adversely affected the traditional stability associated with social
order in China. Institutional change in China
during the second half of the 20th century was far greater than in any
previous period. Even those changes,
however, appeared to be haphazard and chaotic, compared to Western
institutional change. In many cases,
sub-sets of rules were altered with no apparent view as to what the final
result could or should be. When central planning was
officially abandoned in December 1979, a substantial amount of government
authority was decentralised. The
overall strategy and the setting of priorities nevertheless remain
“top-down”. This has not changed
significantly since, perhaps, the Zhou Dynasty (1027 to 221 BC). We are suggesting in a separate document that economic
co-operation between Australia and China must start at the central government
level in order to mobilise the resources in China that are necessary to
implement the necessary policies for wider and more systematic institutional
change. The Chamber also suggests that
non-government organisations in both Australia and China are likely to be
critical elements in this process.
Co-operation between representative organisations will enable the
non-government sector to acquire the skills necessary to carry out the
process of change through to the enterprise level and to the precinct level
in urban areas. The overall scale of China is
vastly larger than Australia’s in terms of population. At the enterprise level, however, the
pattern is reversed. Annex A lists
the 30 companies in China that are included in Asiaweek’s
Top 1,000 companies in Asia. Annex B
shows 76 Australian and New Zealand companies in the same Asiaweek listing.
Only the top four Chinese companies are ranked higher than the highest
four Australian and New Zealand companies. For this and other reasons the
Chamber believes there is considerable scope for economic co-operation at the
non-government organisational level, and this will continue at least until
such time as China’s companies increase substantially in number and ranking
among the top 1,000companies in Asia. We also think there is
considerable scope for two-way direct investment between Australia and
China. This is likely to be firmly
linked to economic co-operation and that, in itself, will be a far more
effective incentive for FDI than any other proposed means to attract it.
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Crafts, N. “Globalisation and Growth in the Twentieth
Century, IMF Working Paper No. 00/44, March
2000. Available at http://www.imf.org. Gilpin, R, The Challenge of Global
Capitalism: The World Economy in the 21st Century, Princeton
University Press, 2000. Graham,
E. M., and Wada, E, “Foreign Direct Investment In China: Effects on Growth
and Economic Performance”, to appear in Peter Drysdale, ed., Achieving High Growth: Experience of Transitional Economies
in East Asia, forthcoming 2001. Moran,
T. H., Foreign Direct Investment and Development,
Institute for International Economics, 1998. Tanzi, V., “Globalisation and the Future of Social
Protection, IMF Working Paper No. 00/12,
January 2000. Available at http://www.imf.org. World
Bank, “Entering the 21st Century”, World Development
Report 1999/2000. World
Bank, Cities in Transition: A Strategic View of Urban and Local
Government Issues, 2000. World Bank, Urban Development
Working Papers (some undated): Deichmann, U. and Henderson, V.,
“Urban and Regional Dynamics in Poland”. Henderson, V., “How Urban
Concentration Affects Economic Growth”. Henderson, V. and Shalizi, Z.,
“Geography and Development”. Ingram, G. K., “Patterns of
Metropolitan Development: What Have We Learned?” Ravallion, M., “On the
Urbanisation of Poverty”. Yusuf, S. and Wu. W., “Shanghai
Rising in a Globalising World”, June 2001. Urban Development
Working Papers are available at http://www.worldbank.org. Select “topics”, then “urban development”,
“publications”, and finally “working papers”. |
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China’s Companies Among Asiaweek’s Top 1000 Companies
From Asiaweek (http://www.pathfinder.com/asiaweek) |
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Australian and New Zealand Companies Among Asiaweek’s Top 1000
Companies
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